gothcactus 
As the new year rolls around, I wanted to write some predictions for the upcoming leap year. The main areas are labor and the US empire. Some election.
2024 is elections again in the US. It’s always a terrible cycle. But 24 may be unique because it may be the last time elections will seem “normal” before they deteriorate even further.
LABOR
The only major momentum is in labor. Union organizing in 2023 has been the most active in the past 10, maybe even 20 years. Besides my organizing, the nation is seeing many more strikes and labor actions.
So I think 24 will only intensify this momentum. But the main concern I have is the cooptation by electoral politics. Major union bureaucrats will try to divert rank-and-file energy and redirect it toward the upcoming election. This will only neutralize the movement. The left must stand with people on the ground instead of union leadership.
US EMPIRE
The next major trend is international politics. The US empire is falling as we speak. Domestic infrastructure is breaking. Despite major breakdowns domestically, the US is still expanding its military actions and channeling even more resources to forever war. Fortunately, other major powers in the world are rising to combat the hegemony of the dollar by building alliances with each other. BRICS, for example, are expanding their membership, including even long-time US allies such as Saudi Arabia. Though these nation-states have their own interests and do not pursue de-dollarization to combat US imperialism, it is a major blow to the empire. De-dollarizing is crucial to escape US sanctions and establish financial autonomy.
2024 will be a continuation of these efforts. Unfortunately, in response to them, the US will become even more unstable and unpredictable, possibly leading to WWIII. This may start with a war with Iran, as current Israeli military actions are inching closer and closer to Iran. Of course, there’s also the escalating tensions with China via Taiwan. These are only the major escalations among other US military actions around the world.
With regard to Palestine, the dark outcome of annihilation is likely. Israel will not stop until it takes over Gaza and potentially even the West Bank. The US will not stop funding this genocide, even with an upcoming election. They will only stall until the new president is installed.
ELECTION
The election, of course, will happen. This will be another cycle of circus. Though this cycle is interesting given the blatant rigging. Though many say it will be a round 2 of Trump and Biden, I think some other theories are likely. Biden’s deteriorating mental state means the Democratic party will try to replace him, especially since he’s approval rating is at an all-time low. Trump is charged with criminal offenses to prevent him from running. On top of that, states are getting him taken out of ballots. These are obviously fascist tactics to control the election. In the past, they were more discreet, but now, they are bold moves. The political elites know people are disaffected and will not try to fight these actions.
At the very least, this shows the dysfunctional state of the US political system. Given the trend of the state to consolidate its power, 24 will be no different. Future elections will only be worse, with less and less power to the people.